This question keeps showing up in my inbox: “Is it too late to buy gold?”
Short answer: No. Long answer? Let’s break it down.
Gold is up over 25% year-to-date. We’re trading above $2,400, we touched $2,450+ multiple times this quarter, and big institutions are finally waking up to the reality that gold is no longer just a “boomer hedge.” It’s acting like a frontline asset in a macro storm — and it’s doing the job beautifully.
Why Gold Is Still in Play
1. This Isn’t a “Risk-Off” Rally — It’s a Structural Shift
Stocks, bonds, and the dollar have started to correlate again. That’s rare — and it’s a sign that investors are nervous about something deeper than just Fed policy. Gold is one of the only things performing in that backdrop.
Goldman Sachs just said it: the traditional 60/40 portfolio hedge is breaking down, and investors are rotating into gold as the new stabilizer.
2. Central Banks Are Quietly Going All-In
Retail demand is flat, but guess who’s buying hand over fist? Central banks. China. India. Eastern Europe. Q1 2025 gold ETF inflows were up 170% compared to last year. These aren’t speculators — they’re sovereign buyers who are positioning for a long-term macro regime shift. You don’t fight that kind of demand.
3. Supply Constraints Are Underappreciated
Even with sky-high prices, miners aren’t hedging. That’s extremely telling. They’re that confident in gold holding — or breaking higher. And let’s be real: the cost of new discovery and refining is rising. We don’t have a sudden flood of supply coming online. Structural tightness is still a thing.
Where the Big Banks Think It’s Headed
Let’s be clear — Wall Street finally gets it:
- Goldman Sachs: Raised year-end target to $3,700/oz.
- JP Morgan: Predicting Q4 average around $2,950/oz.
- CoinCodex: Projects $4,100+ peak by December.
Are those numbers wild? Maybe. Are they out of reach? Not at all.
So… Should You Be Buying?
If you’re asking me, I’m still long. I’ve been adding on dips under $2,400. My thesis hasn’t changed:
- Geopolitical tail risk? Rising.
- U.S. bond market? Wobbling.
- Fed credibility? Shrinking.
- Central bank demand? Surging.
This is exactly the environment where gold thrives. The window to get positioned before the next move is narrowing.
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